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Maintenance Math

The Three-Year Number: What Four Routes to the Same Face Actually Cost

Every price you are quoted is the price of starting. Here is the same modest goal costed four ways across three years, and the arithmetic that decides which one is extravagant.

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A ledger open on a dark walnut dressing table under one warm lamp, a long curl of receipts spilling from beneath it past four unbranded products.

Nobody is lying to you about the price. They are just quoting the first one.

A consultation gives you a number for a session. A box gives you a number for a device. Neither is the number you will actually spend, because almost nothing in aesthetics is bought once — it is subscribed to, in a currency of appointments, replacements, gels, tubes and follow-ups that the first quote has no reason to mention. The interesting question was never what a thing costs. It is what it costs for as long as you want to keep the result.

Three years is the right window. One year flatters anything with a big up-front cost and hides anything with a small recurring one. Five years is a fantasy — your skin, budget and interest will all have changed. Three years is long enough for maintenance to show its face and short enough that you can actually picture it.

So here is the same modest goal — better texture, softer early lines, the general category of looking like you slept — costed four ways.

The method, which is duller than the result and matters more

Four inputs. Entry cost. Cadence, meaning how often the thing has to happen. The consumable, which is whatever quietly re-orders itself. And the decay: what is left if you stop.

That last one is the one nobody prints, and it is the one that separates a purchase from a subscription. Some of these routes leave something behind. Most of them do not.

Route one: the boring one

Daily sunscreen, a retinoid you tolerate, a moisturizer that does not fight either of them.

Route one

The basics, held for three years

Daily SPF, an OTC retinoid, a moisturizer
  1. Entry$0Nothing to buy into. You start on a Tuesday.
  2. Year one$220Drugstore prices, honestly kept: roughly eight tubes of sunscreen, four tubes of adapalene, six jars of moisturizer.
  3. Year three$660It does not compound, escalate, or require an appointment. It also does not stop working because you missed a month.

Stop paying, and: It fades slowly, and the sun protection part stops protecting immediately. This is the only route here where stopping has a consequence that is not cosmetic.

The cheaper decision: There is no cheaper version to start. This is the floor, and everything below costs more up front.

This is the route with the strongest evidence behind it and the least interesting story attached to it, which is roughly the permanent condition of dermatology.

Route two: the device

Route two

An at-home device, held for three years

Representative premium device at 400 dollars
  1. Entry$400Paid once, which is genuinely unusual in this company.
  2. Year one$400No consumable on an LED mask. A microcurrent device is a different ledger — add the gel.
  3. Year three$530Assumes one battery or panel failure inside three years, which is the ordinary fate of a rechargeable object used nightly.

Stop paying, and: It fades. Photobiomodulation results are maintenance-dependent, so what you bought was a rate of upkeep rather than a change you keep.

The cheaper decision: Route one, with nothing to buy into and more evidence behind it for the same complaint.

Cheaper across three years than most people expect, and the only route here whose real cost is measured in evenings rather than dollars. Forty-three hours a year, at ten minutes a night, five nights a week. Whether that is expensive depends entirely on what your evenings are worth to you, which is a question the sales page politely declines to ask.

Route three: a treatment course, maintained

Route three

In-clinic microneedling, maintained

Mid-market provider, four-session initial course
  1. Entry$1,600Four sessions at a mid-range 400 dollars. The number quoted at consultation is usually the 400.
  2. Year one$1,600Year one is the course. Nothing else is required, and nothing else is optional either if you want the result the course produced.
  3. Year three$3,200Twice-yearly maintenance after year one. The quoted price and the lived price part company here.

Stop paying, and: The result softens back toward baseline over months. Not overnight, and not to nothing — but the maintenance schedule exists because the effect has a half-life.

The cheaper decision: Fewer sessions, held longer. Two well-spaced sessions a year sustains more than most people assume, and costs half of what an anxious schedule does.

Route four: the injectable

Route four

A neuromodulator, maintained

Mid-market provider, three treatments a year
  1. Entry$500One treatment. This is the number everybody knows and the only one anybody quotes.
  2. Year one$1,500Three treatments a year, which is the ordinary cadence rather than an enthusiastic one.
  3. Year three$4,500No course, no ramp, no finish line. The cost is flat, permanent, and entirely predictable — which is either reassuring or alarming depending on the week.

Stop paying, and: The visible muscle-relaxing effect wears off. Repeated treatment can leave longer-lived changes in muscle size, function or wrinkle pattern, although the evidence is limited and does not justify calling those changes permanent or predictable.

The cheaper decision: Fewer areas, or a longer interval. Both reduce the annual figure without changing the mechanism.

Worth saying plainly, because the number looks alarming written down: 4,500 dollars over three years is roughly four dollars a day, and people spend four dollars a day on things they enjoy considerably less. The point of putting it in one figure is not to shame anyone out of it. It is that 1,500 a year, forever is a different decision from 500, and only one of those two numbers is usually on the table when you decide.

Now put them next to each other

Three-year view

What each route is really selling

The same modest goal, four ways
OnThree-year costWhat you own at the end
Basics660 dollarsA habit, and skin that kept its sun protection
At-home device530 dollarsA device, and whatever the last month of use is worth
Microneedling course3,200 dollarsNothing physical. A result with a half-life and a schedule
Neuromodulator4,500 dollarsNo physical asset. The visible effect is temporary; repeated treatment may leave longer-lived muscle or wrinkle-pattern changes

What changes the answer: Whether the result you want is one the cheap routes can produce at all. If it is, they win on arithmetic every time. If it is not, no amount of diligent moisturizing closes the gap.

Ranges are representative of a mid-sized US market in 2026, not a quote — a major metro runs 20 to 50 percent higher. Run your own provider figures through the same four inputs.
Three-year cost of four routes to the same modest goal Four lines running from each route’s first-year total to its three-year total. The basics go from 220 dollars to 660 dollars. An at-home device goes from 400 dollars to 530 dollars. A maintained microneedling course goes from 1,600 dollars to 3,200 dollars. A maintained neuromodulator goes from 1,500 dollars to 4,500 dollars. The two inexpensive lines cross: the device starts higher than the basics and finishes lower, because it is paid for once. Only the first-year and three-year totals are published in this article, so the segment between them is drawn as a straight line. $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 Year 1 Year 3 Microneedling course $1,600 Neuromodulator $1,500 At-home device $400 The basics $220 $4,500 $3,200 $660 $530 the device overtakes the drugstore shelf somewhere in year two Only the first-year and three-year totals are published above; the segment between them is drawn straight.
Two of these are bought and two are rented, and the crossing is the part nobody expects: the device starts out dearer than a drugstore shelf and finishes the three years cheaper than one, because only one of those two bills keeps arriving.

The eighty percent question

The useful test is not whether the expensive route works. It usually does. It is whether the cheap route gets most of the way there for the concern you actually have.

For texture and early lines, it very often does, and that is not a consolation prize — it is the finding. For a specific dynamic line that has bothered you for a decade, it does not, and no amount of diligence closes that gap, because the mechanisms are not competing for the same job. Anyone who tells you a serum replaces a neuromodulator is selling the serum. Anyone who tells you the neuromodulator was inevitable is selling the appointment.

Which makes the order of operations the whole game. Run properly, the cheap route declares itself in about twelve weeks. Three years of maintaining something you did not need takes three years, and at the end of it you still have no idea what the cheap route would have done, because it never got an uncontested run. Twelve weeks is a short wait for an answer that can cancel every other number on this page.

When the expensive option genuinely earns it

When the cheap route has been run correctly and honestly for long enough, and has plateaued. When the concern is structural rather than superficial, and no topical mechanism addresses it. When the result matters enough to you that the recurring cost is a considered purchase rather than a drift. And when you have priced the third year, not the first appointment.

And if the decision in front of you is a tightening one, three years is the wrong window entirely — that comparison only opens up at year seven, which is the subject of its own file.

Those are not restrictive conditions. Plenty of people meet all four, and the answer for them is yes, comfortably. The problem is not people spending money on aesthetics. It is people spending it on the fourth thing before the first thing has been given a chance to fail.

Treatment ranges are editorial estimates for a mid-sized US market compiled from published 2026 med-spa price indexes and manufacturer guidance; major metros run materially higher. Repeated botulinum-toxin treatment has published evidence of longer-lived muscle and wrinkle-pattern changes in some patients even after the obvious clinical effect fades; the long-term evidence remains limited. Product figures are ordinary retail. Every number here is an input to be replaced with your own, not a quote. Reviewed September 2026.